The end of the pandemic
Big words — but here is a possible way out, to be walked by each and everyone (as of Apr 02, 2021: 22 studies, 9 test results, 9 laboratories, (8 in continental europe, one in the UK) 3 results with cross-immunity and 1 correction)
This is a translation (from german) of one out of seven articles about the problem with everything related to and caused by COVID-19 on my blog.
Please keep in mind, that this article is written from a german viewpoint on this pandemic. Excess mortality and utilization rates/availability of ICUs are different in every country!
Everyone is annoyed. From COVID-19, from the measures, from everything. And yet, we are (still) right in the middle of it all, the politicians outdo each other in gruesome-creepy Easter-ruining, and there is no end in sight …
The pandemic just doesn’t want to go away
— despite Ioannidis
Who wrote on March 17th 2020, ‘we are making decisions without reliable data’ (and unfortunately: yes! — that has not changed to this day!), And instead of ’a-once-in-a-century pandemic […] it may also be a once-in-a-century evidence fiasco’.
— despite the absence of excess mortality [in germany]
Clearly visible on the graphic: the bad flu epidemic of 2018:
[UPDATE 02 APR 21]:
[UPDATE NEW DIAGRAM 02 APR 21]:
What you cannot see, is the answer to the question: is there excess-mortality in germany in 2020?
Seems to be similar to recent years, one can tell, but not more. Therefore, the same data from destatis.de again, but this time accumulated!
[UPDATE NEW DIAGRAM 02 APR 21]:
Looking back a decade shows a trend, that is -maybe unexceptedly- climbing due to the demographic structure of the german people. But within that trend there is no real excess in the mortality:
— despite the not imminent overload of the health care system [in germany]
The news reports definitely sounds different, and I will not doubt the reports from the clinics either, but the central register for intensive care beds (intensivregister.de) set up this year because of Corona speaks a different language:
An overload is imminent when the COVID cases (medium brown) push the occupied beds (medium blue) upwards so that the free beds (light blue) disappear and finally the emergency-reserve-beds becomes less. Currently, of the free beds 75% are dwindling due to a reduction in beds and 25% due to an increased number of beds in use. Of this rising occupancy, the proportion of COVID-19 cases is unpublished and/or unknown.
Postponed operations reduce the ‘normal’ bed requirement (COVID-19 therefore has a larger proportion of the increase), and accident victims who also have a positive PCR test (due to an old or current infection) increase the bed requirement (COVID-19 then has a smaller share in the increase). It is typical for 2020, that nobody gives the numbers that would be necessary here.
— despite cross immunity
Which cross immunity?
(a detailed answer would be my article What would be the solution?
In short: The cross-immunity that you get from your children or from a ‘common winter cold’ [No — this is no denial, this is a quote from the ‘Drosten study’! — bottom last link in the below list] in the last few years! About 20% of the viruses that cause colds and mild flu are endemic corona viruses)
The immunity that, according to the studies listed below, exists in an average of just above 50% of the population, which could therefore be called herd-immunity, and which is COMPLETELY ignored by politics and the leading media in 2020:
- 39% Cross immunity
- Cross immunity in 70% of people without contact to SARS-CoV-2 (MedGenome, India and USA)
- Cross immunity in 20–50% of people without contact to SARS-CoV-2 (various universities, California, North Carolina, USA and Australia)
- Cross immunity in 81% of people without contact to SARS-CoV-2 (University of Tübingen)
- 13% cross immunity through antibodies (no longer included in the graphic above)(University College, London, England etc.)
- 51% cross immunity
(University of Singapore)
- Review article on cross immunity with 20% to 50%
(University of California, USA)
- Long-lasting T-cell cross immunity
(Karolinska University, Stockholm, Sweden)
- Cross immunity at 40–60% and wide target areas for T cell response
(Universities of California, North Carolina, etc., USA)
- Cross immunity in 35% of people without contact to SARS-CoV-2
(Max Planck Institute, Charité & TU Berlin, etc., Bernhard Nocht Institute, Hamburg, etc.)
The study results vary widely from 20% to 81%. This is not as unusual as it may seem, because there are epimiological explanations for this, see article What would be the solution?
However, I presume 80% to be the most likely value. Why? Isn’t that too optimistic? Well: 80% of those infected have no or hardly any symptoms. Why? BECAUSE THEY HAVE A WORKING IMMUNE RESPONSE!
How about a proof of your own immunity?
How would that work?
Not with a PCR test, that cannot tell whether you are currently infected or whether it was three months ago because it does not detect the virus, but rather gene sequences from it. (Apart from the twenty other problems [article in german only])
Not with an antibody test, that may not find any antibodies (IgM, IgG, IgA), as they may not have been formed at all (presumably a good, fast immune response of the T cells and / or a low viral load during the infection, or both), or disappeared already (as above or the infection was a long time ago or both).
Not with an antigene test, see PCR test, this one instead detects protein fragments and not genetic material, and is less accurate.
If you can prove cross-immunity in studies, there has to be laboratory technology for it …
Correct. There is. Assuming that the above studies are correct, such a test is worthwhile for ‘everyone’ ¹. Otherwise not, of course. (¹ = 80%)
Unlike the tests above, the immunity evidence currently² has no³ negative⁴ consequences yet⁵. Consequences like being PCR-positive or antigen-positive: the full program — quarantine, contact tracing, etc., or antibody-positive: you know you were sick once, but nothing more
( ² ³ ⁴ ⁵ it’s 2020, nobody knows what’s next)
What other consequences would the evidence of immunity have?
- You’d have a document that, if used well, should be sufficient⁶ to avoid the consequences of a positive PCR test (because of a hospital stay, or returning from a trip).
( ⁶ it’s 2020, you definitely have to try a court)
- You’d have a document which (in accordance with the current⁷ legal situation⁸ on the measles vaccination obligation in Germany) is legally⁹ identical¹⁰ to a vaccination certificate, as it proves immunity.
( ⁷ ⁸ ⁹ ¹⁰ it’s 2020, nobody knows what’s coming)
- You’d have a document which, in large, really large¹¹ numbers, should mean that politics can no longer ignore the issue of cross-immunity. And that politics could no longer reject the issue in its appearance as herd immunity as the wrong way, or as only achievable through vaccination.
( ¹¹ I mean really many!)
Not too bad for a start!
The first results
[UPDATES 30 dec 20/20 jan 21/16 feb 21/25 feb 21]:
By now I have seen nine lab results, three showing cross-immunity, six of them showing no cross-immunity (like mine below):
This sums up to 3/9 = 33,3% cross immunity with the people tested. Sample size still ‘anectdotal’.
Cross-immunity would look like this:
[UPDATE 02 APR 21]: or for real, like this:
And a gone-through SARS-CoV-2 Infection would look like this:
[UPDATES 31 jan 21/16 feb 21/02 apr 21]:
Since my own and 66% of the lab results I know of are ‘negative’¹, I had my own status cross-checked² with another lab technology (‘ELISpot’):
[ ¹ ‘negative’: colloquial in the sense of a) not the result I hoped for, but also b) not PCR-test-positive; ²pun intended]
[UPDATE 02 APR 21]:
Someone else, who happens to own a laboratory, has the idea of testing people for cross immunity:
Where, how, when, how expensive?
[UPDATE 02 APR 21]:
The how-to now is pretty simple now. Here, on my website:
Here the others of the 22 studies I mentionned above are going to be presented and discussed.
Labor Dr. Dostal Wien
Information about the Test
[The laboratory does not carry out the test itself, but forwards the sample]
Costs: not provided, unknown
Lab4more Labor München 🇬🇧
Information about the Test [no Informationen provided]
Order form [PDF] (a little confusing! The test is on page 4, there is also an english form 🇬🇧 , but I haven’t found the test there)
Costs: not provided, approx. € 150
Information about the laboratories — and the fine print
Just reading the information available from the above Laboratories [some do provide english versions] you may ask yourself questions like:
- is this an LTT (lymphocyte transformation test) or an ELISpot test (enzyme-linked immuno spot test)?
- what’s the difference between the two?
- what exactly is the difference between the antibody test (and the difference between the IgA, IgG and IgM-anti-bodies?) and the new test that the laboratories carry out?
Before I try myself and make mistakes: a very good and readable explanation [again in german only, sorry] by the scientific publication Trillium Diagnostik.
So far, I have only given the contact details of five laboratories in Germany and one in Austria, as these are the only laboratories currently known to me that offer the test and describe it clearly enough. Lymphocyte-transformation-tests (amazing, which words you learn in 2020) in general are too unspecific and available for evidence of the Lyme disease. They are useless here.
To add a laboratory, please contact me via
tel: +49 3212–4882283
e-mail: klage-gegen-corona [@] email.de
NOTE (also to the trolls and [immune-system-]haters): of course I cannot be reached directly! The phone number only accepts voice messages. I will check them and the emails regularly (to be on the safe side with my finger on the delete key) and I will most likely not report back.